Originally posted Oct 20, 2005 -- I thought this was relevant with the tornado outbreaks we have had this week (May 2008)...
I have seen a lot of speculation in recent weeks about the number of disasters which have happened recently signalling the end times. First off, since much of it is meterological, I have decided to write a blurb on it. Its rare that a topic touches both my meteorological interest and my faith interest so here we go.
First off, if it isn't clear to everyone by now, 2005 is an historic hurricane season. It has tied the record for most Atlantic storms in a single season and had 3 (possibly 4) Category 5 storms. Hurricanes Wilma (1), Rita (4) and Katrina (6) sit amongst the Top 10 in most intense Atlantic storms on record (source).
We have had an historic tsunami that resulted in a record number of deaths.
We have had an earthquake in Pakistan with a death toll as of this writing of 79,000.
There has also been an increase in the number of tornadoes reported on a year to year basis.
First off, let’s look at a little bit of what the Church teaches on the matter:
Matt 24:3-8
Hurricane activity
The 1933 hurricane season was as active as this season (to date) and the storms then were not as well documented. How it would compare to this season given today’s technology back then is a mystery. Still, combine this with the depths of the Great Depression and it would be easy to think that this might cause one to be alarmed. Also consider that hurricane reconnaissance began in the 1940's with many classic hurricanes falling before those dates whose minimum pressures likely occurred out at sea with no dropsondes to pick it up. The Galveston Storm of 1900, the Keys Hurricane of 1935 and the Great Lake Okeechobee Hurricane storm of 1928 were all catastrophic events and all of them could have been stronger before making landfall -- although the 1935 storm was likely close to peak intensity when it made its appearance at Key West. The fact is we are in what many meteorologists feel is a natural active long-term cycle in hurricane activity that could last for decades to come. The 1970's and 80's were a lull time in hurricane activity. Most of us are used to hurricane seasons that are below normal. Consider specificially the number of retired storms in the 1950's. In 1955 alone we had FOUR retired storms which followed a 1954 season producing three retired storms. This season is likely to best it but it is STILL not unprecedented given that storms were not even retired in the decades prior to 1950 because they were not named. This year is certainly unusual but END TIMES unusual? It COULD beat 1933, but not by much. To add even more perspective to this consider that an LSU study in 2000 suggests that we are (or were) at the possible END of a millennial quiet cycle of storms. In none of these earlier upswings did we usher in the immediate end.
Tsunami and Earthquakes killing thousands
The 2004 Asian Tsunami killed an estimated 275,000 people making it one of the most deadly disasters in modern history. This is certainly amongst the highest death totals from a tsunami on record but keep in mind we have greater population in these areas meaning that a similar tsunami in the past might have affected far fewer people. Earthquakes historically have killed as many as 830,000 people (in 1556) and storm surge from a tropical cyclone in Bangledesh in 1991 killed 140,000 people. (source) The end times did not come.
Tornado outbreak increases
Some have also cited the increase in tornado activity as being another sign of the end times however this dubious increase in tornadoes is easily explainable. For one thing we are identifying MORE tornadoes that do not cause damage. The perfect example of this can be seen by comparing the Super Outbreak of 1974 with the Memorial Day tornado outbreak of 2004 both with similar numbers of tornadoes over a short time period. The 2004 outbreak pales in comparison to the 1974 outbreak when comparing violent tornadoes (F3+). The 1974 outbreak had six F5 tornadoes, 23 F4 tornadoes and 35 F3 tornadoes. Of the 149 tornadoes in the outbreak 23 F0 tornadoes were identified. In the 2004 outbreak there was one F4 and 6 F3's. However, 82 F0's were identified in the outbreak. F0's by definition cause no damage but in today’s tornado chaser and camcorder rich environment more of them are captured on film and documented. Finally, go back and reconsider what I said about F5's and the Super Outbreak. There have been approximately 75 documented F5 tornadoes since 1900. The Super Outbreak was responsible for SIX of them. There have been no F5's since May 3, 1999. Notice ... calamity abound in 1974 and we are still here.
Other historic events that might have caused me to say hmmmmmm
There are two immediate events that immediately come to mind when I think of things that would have caused me to think that the end was near. The first of these events was the Tambora volcanic eruption in 1815 caused 82,000 starvation deaths and resulted in the Year Without a Summer in 1816. The second of these events was the holocaust. Many years later, we are all still around.
Media coverage increase
One final point I want you to consider is this; The Asian Tsunami and Hurricane Katrina put the spotlight on natural disasters. If history is any indication, I am not sure the recent earthquake in Pakistan would have gotten the coverage it did if it had not been for the previous two events. In fact, I was somewhat dissapointed in the coverage of Hurricane Stan, which resulted in more deaths than Katrina and included one of the deadliest landslides in history. Media coverage certainly affects ones perception of what is going on in the world.
Stop writing will ya?
The key here is historical perspective (list of deadliest disasters). I think many of us, especially those of us who didn't live through much of this past calamity have a hard time seeing the big picture. Horrific natural disasters "of biblical proportions" have been happening every decade since the dawn of time. Just because a few of them happened in the same six to twelve month period does not necessarily indicate the end times are coming. Our Lord said we would not know the day or the hour. This was quite simply a good way of telling us to be prepared NOW.
Someone on a forum that I frequent put it this way; "People have been speculating about the end times for centuries. One of these days somebody is going to be right."
If history is a good measure, then chances are you won't live to see Christ come again. It is better to prepare for the far greater likelihood of your own death. Consider yourself informed.
Example of years similar to these past two: 1960-1961 saw a flurry of Category Five hurricanes with Donna and Ethel in 1960 and Carla and Hattie in 1961. There were three F5 tornadoes in those years in the United States. The Great Chilean Earthquake, which was the largest magnitude quake ever recorded (9.5) occurred in 1960. This earthquake generated one of the most destructive tsunamis in history. Another earthquake in 1960 nearly totally destroyed Agadir, Morocco. In 1961 a volcanic eruption occurred on Tristan da Cunha requiring an evacuation of the entire population. The world did not end.
I have seen a lot of speculation in recent weeks about the number of disasters which have happened recently signalling the end times. First off, since much of it is meterological, I have decided to write a blurb on it. Its rare that a topic touches both my meteorological interest and my faith interest so here we go.
First off, if it isn't clear to everyone by now, 2005 is an historic hurricane season. It has tied the record for most Atlantic storms in a single season and had 3 (possibly 4) Category 5 storms. Hurricanes Wilma (1), Rita (4) and Katrina (6) sit amongst the Top 10 in most intense Atlantic storms on record (source).
We have had an historic tsunami that resulted in a record number of deaths.
We have had an earthquake in Pakistan with a death toll as of this writing of 79,000.
There has also been an increase in the number of tornadoes reported on a year to year basis.
First off, let’s look at a little bit of what the Church teaches on the matter:
Matt 24:3-8
3 As he was sitting on the Mount of Olives, the disciples approached him privately and said, "Tell us, when will this happen, and what sign will there be of your coming, and of the end of the age?"Now lets try to place some real historical perspective on these disasters ...
4 Jesus said to them in reply, "See that no one deceives you.
5 For many will come in my name, saying, 'I am the Messiah,' and they will deceive many.
6 You will hear of wars and reports of wars; see that you are not alarmed, for these things must happen, but it will not yet be the end.
7 Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom; there will be famines and earthquakes from place to place.
8 All these are the beginning of the labor pains.
Hurricane activity
The 1933 hurricane season was as active as this season (to date) and the storms then were not as well documented. How it would compare to this season given today’s technology back then is a mystery. Still, combine this with the depths of the Great Depression and it would be easy to think that this might cause one to be alarmed. Also consider that hurricane reconnaissance began in the 1940's with many classic hurricanes falling before those dates whose minimum pressures likely occurred out at sea with no dropsondes to pick it up. The Galveston Storm of 1900, the Keys Hurricane of 1935 and the Great Lake Okeechobee Hurricane storm of 1928 were all catastrophic events and all of them could have been stronger before making landfall -- although the 1935 storm was likely close to peak intensity when it made its appearance at Key West. The fact is we are in what many meteorologists feel is a natural active long-term cycle in hurricane activity that could last for decades to come. The 1970's and 80's were a lull time in hurricane activity. Most of us are used to hurricane seasons that are below normal. Consider specificially the number of retired storms in the 1950's. In 1955 alone we had FOUR retired storms which followed a 1954 season producing three retired storms. This season is likely to best it but it is STILL not unprecedented given that storms were not even retired in the decades prior to 1950 because they were not named. This year is certainly unusual but END TIMES unusual? It COULD beat 1933, but not by much. To add even more perspective to this consider that an LSU study in 2000 suggests that we are (or were) at the possible END of a millennial quiet cycle of storms. In none of these earlier upswings did we usher in the immediate end.
Tsunami and Earthquakes killing thousands
The 2004 Asian Tsunami killed an estimated 275,000 people making it one of the most deadly disasters in modern history. This is certainly amongst the highest death totals from a tsunami on record but keep in mind we have greater population in these areas meaning that a similar tsunami in the past might have affected far fewer people. Earthquakes historically have killed as many as 830,000 people (in 1556) and storm surge from a tropical cyclone in Bangledesh in 1991 killed 140,000 people. (source) The end times did not come.
Tornado outbreak increases
Some have also cited the increase in tornado activity as being another sign of the end times however this dubious increase in tornadoes is easily explainable. For one thing we are identifying MORE tornadoes that do not cause damage. The perfect example of this can be seen by comparing the Super Outbreak of 1974 with the Memorial Day tornado outbreak of 2004 both with similar numbers of tornadoes over a short time period. The 2004 outbreak pales in comparison to the 1974 outbreak when comparing violent tornadoes (F3+). The 1974 outbreak had six F5 tornadoes, 23 F4 tornadoes and 35 F3 tornadoes. Of the 149 tornadoes in the outbreak 23 F0 tornadoes were identified. In the 2004 outbreak there was one F4 and 6 F3's. However, 82 F0's were identified in the outbreak. F0's by definition cause no damage but in today’s tornado chaser and camcorder rich environment more of them are captured on film and documented. Finally, go back and reconsider what I said about F5's and the Super Outbreak. There have been approximately 75 documented F5 tornadoes since 1900. The Super Outbreak was responsible for SIX of them. There have been no F5's since May 3, 1999. Notice ... calamity abound in 1974 and we are still here.
Other historic events that might have caused me to say hmmmmmm
There are two immediate events that immediately come to mind when I think of things that would have caused me to think that the end was near. The first of these events was the Tambora volcanic eruption in 1815 caused 82,000 starvation deaths and resulted in the Year Without a Summer in 1816. The second of these events was the holocaust. Many years later, we are all still around.
Media coverage increase
One final point I want you to consider is this; The Asian Tsunami and Hurricane Katrina put the spotlight on natural disasters. If history is any indication, I am not sure the recent earthquake in Pakistan would have gotten the coverage it did if it had not been for the previous two events. In fact, I was somewhat dissapointed in the coverage of Hurricane Stan, which resulted in more deaths than Katrina and included one of the deadliest landslides in history. Media coverage certainly affects ones perception of what is going on in the world.
Stop writing will ya?
The key here is historical perspective (list of deadliest disasters). I think many of us, especially those of us who didn't live through much of this past calamity have a hard time seeing the big picture. Horrific natural disasters "of biblical proportions" have been happening every decade since the dawn of time. Just because a few of them happened in the same six to twelve month period does not necessarily indicate the end times are coming. Our Lord said we would not know the day or the hour. This was quite simply a good way of telling us to be prepared NOW.
Someone on a forum that I frequent put it this way; "People have been speculating about the end times for centuries. One of these days somebody is going to be right."
If history is a good measure, then chances are you won't live to see Christ come again. It is better to prepare for the far greater likelihood of your own death. Consider yourself informed.
Example of years similar to these past two: 1960-1961 saw a flurry of Category Five hurricanes with Donna and Ethel in 1960 and Carla and Hattie in 1961. There were three F5 tornadoes in those years in the United States. The Great Chilean Earthquake, which was the largest magnitude quake ever recorded (9.5) occurred in 1960. This earthquake generated one of the most destructive tsunamis in history. Another earthquake in 1960 nearly totally destroyed Agadir, Morocco. In 1961 a volcanic eruption occurred on Tristan da Cunha requiring an evacuation of the entire population. The world did not end.
This is a "fresh" blogroll. It tends to list blogs most frequently updated at the top. It will also drop blogs not updated for a few days. Never fear though, if you post, it will show back up. If you are interested in how I did it see 
Calendar
At the same time, there is a lot of modern apparitions that describes a lot of the things going on at the spiritual level. For example, Akita tells about bishops going against bishops and cardinals against cardinals, and those things are definitely happening almost everyday lately. You could pick which ever accepted (by the RC) apparition or prophecy you like and you will be stund at the precise descriptions of what is going on in the world. Of course one can always argue that such things happen at al ages, but never the less, the precise descriptions offered in the prophesis are rather striking.
By the way, Jesus words "You will hear of wars and reports of wars; see that you are not alarmed, for these things must happen, but it will not yet be the end.
7 Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom; there will be famines and earthquakes from place to place. " suggests that we will all hear about (at least some of) these things, and for all to hear about them we will need good communication abilities, which we have not had until recently.